An Analysis – Oscar Predictions

February 24th, 2012 | POSTED BY Benjamin Rendall

Best Actor:

Demián Bichir, A Better Life
George Clooney, The Descendants
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

Will win: George Clooney

Should win: Brad Pitt

Analysis: This is actually one of the harder ones to predict. For a while, Clooney was sweeping the critic awards, but then Jean Dujardin went and won the SAG award and the BAFTA. While winning those doesn’t guarantee Dujardin is now the frontrunner, SAG and BAFTA actually have members of the Academy in them as well, and with The Artist as the current frontrunner for Best Picture and Dujardin as a huge reason that it succeeds as a film, he has a shot. Still, I am going with Clooney. He has been an Academy favorite for a while, with seven nominations all together for acting, directing, and screenwriting, and one win in the supporting actor category. There as been a sense that he will win Best Actor at some point, and many have claimed this is his best performance. That, and the Academy likes to spread the wealth around. Besides giving it screenplay, giving Clooney best actor is the best chance they have to reward The Descendents. Still, if there is an upset, this would be the category for it to happen in.

Personal Bias: The fact that Michael Fassbender wasn’t nominated and hasn’t been sweeping all the awards up to this point before getting his much-deserved Oscar for Shame is a travesty that can never be rectified. Okay, got that out of my system…now moving on. I haven’t seen A Better Life, so I can’t comment on Demián Bichir’s performance. Clooney left me ambivalent, with the script making the character too all over the place, so I never felt we had a sense of who this guy was or what he was about. Oldman was great in a very subdued performance and Dujardin was uniformly great capturing the mood of a character without speaking a word.

My choice, though, is Brad Pitt. Now, he has never been a favorite actor of mine, but the level of intensity in his character at his failings of never living up to his expectations is engaging. He takes this and turns the Oakland A’s into a winning baseball team, while also keeping a level of humor to the character, be it observational or self-deprecating. Unlike in The Descendents, the mixture of humor and seriousness works, and Pitt is the center that keeps that going.

Best Actress:

Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn

Will win: Viola Davis

Should win: Rooney Mara

Analysis: Davis has been the critical darling for most of the season and has won the Broadcast Film Critics award and the SAG. The only awards she missed were the Golden Globe and BAFTA, which went to Meryl Streep. Still, the SAGs have actual Academy members, and they also gave The Help their top prize. Streep probably is her biggest competition. While BAFTA shares Academy members as well, Streep winning there can be attributed to her playing such a British role. Streep is also hurt by the fact that many people who like her in The Iron Lady do not like the movie itself, which will hurt her chances. All in all, it is Davis’s to lose.

Personal Bias: This is the one time I felt the Academy actually nominated the rightful winner, even if she has no chance in winning. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo was made by David Fincher, who, up until The Social Network, I thought was an overrated director. However, Mara won me over by never letting her intensity down the entire film. You cannot take your eyes off her, she so dominates the screen. Even when she is relaxing or around people she likes, the sense that this is someone who is always on her guard is overwhelming, though under all that we are given her sense of what is right and wrong and the danger of crossing her. We are also given her loyalties to those she considers worthy. Great work on every level of this fascinating character.

As for the rest, as I said in Supporting Actress, I found all the performances in The Help to be very surface level performances, and that includes Davis. Streep is not given much depth or purpose in The Iron Lady to make her performance that interesting. Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs, while great at bringing this odd person to the screen and giving glimpses into her mindset, isn’t allowed to do enough with the character and ends up being kind of dull. Williams is great as Marilyn Monroe; she gives us the fun and intensity that made the real Monroe so engaging to so many viewers, while also showing the sadness of her and how she can also drive the people around her to distraction. In another year I could give it to her, but Mara just beats her.

(Cont.)

Pages: 1 2 3

Beginners, Bérénice Bejo, Brad Pitt, Christopher Plummer, George Clooney, Hugo, Jean Dujardin, Jonah Hill, Martin Scorsese, Meryl Streep, Michel Hazanavicius, Moneyball, Ocativa Spencer, Rooney Mara, The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, Viola Davis, Woody Allen